Matthew Gordon-Banks

Ukraine: The End

NATO has re-awakened Russia by its advance eastwards.

At the end of the Gorbachev era many, if not most, Russians were disorientated. Ukraine has helped Russia find itself again. Russians have found out what it means to be Russian again. The Russians have become more determined. The economy is doing well, a new middle class has emerged and is emerging. The whole country is humming including the vast area of Siberia where all sorts of high tech, scientific industry is being created. It is like an awakened ‘power-house’.

No one seriously believes that Russia is not prevailing in this terrible conflict at present. Ukraine lost another 8000 troops this week,  just as Russia arrived with 100,000 new troops. The US $61Bn, most of which stays in the America, will make little difference. Some extraordinary things are happening. Village after village is being taken by Russian forces. It sounds small but they are strategic gains. The Ukrainians really are collapsing. In one case this week a key town saw a whole Ukrainian Battalion withdraw without fighting to be replaced by a ‘right sector’ Battalion which refused to take its place. Then another Battalion came and said no, we will not do this either as we should be on vacation. To the outsider this Russian advance may appear just tactical advantage, when in fact it is panic setting in on the Ukrainian front line.

The view from Moscow is that this panic will be followed by an accelerating process to push further westwards in the coming days. This period has made Russians very determined and very confident.

This is all known to western intelligence in Washington and London who also know that many of the things in the $61Bn aid package have actually been sent already.

We are now moving to a very sensitive point between the US and its proxies in Ukraine. The Russian Orthodox Easter is coming up and on 7th May there is the inauguration of President Putin for another six year term. Then on 8th May there is Victory Day celebrating victory in the Great Patriotic War. The ATACMS missiles were frequently intercepted by Russia in Crimea, yet the US/UK have made it clear that they wish to ‘hit’ the Crimean Bridge which is a civilian structure used primarily for civilian purposes. Military logistics go to the front by another well known route. However, the bridge is an asymmetrical PR target particularly of UK whose personnel are greatly involved in behind-the-lines targeting and executing of these attacks. The message from Moscow prior to these events mentioned, is quite simply ‘listen to what Putin is saying. Take his words seriously’; he means it and after these celebrations there will be further things to happen.

Western nations are precariously moving towards a direct confrontation between nuclear powers, carrying potentially catastrophic consequences. The antics of President Macron of France in allegedly sending troops to Ukraine to embarrass Putin at his inauguration is simply beyond belief. It is an unnecessarily dangerous game.

Meanwhile, where is Zaluzhny? He is supposed to be Ukraine’s Ambassador in London but is not present. Some say he is under house arrest in Ukraine. The turmoil is huge.

We are long past the point retired US Four Star General Mark Milley said was the right time to negotiate, but it is still not too late; not least to save so many lives. However, this conflict is going to continue for some time because the West and the Biden Administration especially have good personal domestic reasons for keeping it going. It is tragic.

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