Matthew Gordon-Banks

The key moment of Ukrainian Victory is here?

President Biden made a statement during the recent visit of President Zelensky to the US, stating that Ukraine had already won a great victory over Russia. This nonsense, however, could actually form a new basis for an American approach to Ukraine.

Perhaps the Biden Administration and Zelensky or his successor could present a compromise peace as a victory for Ukraine. It would need to be a qualified one of course, not a complete victory.

By seeking to preserve the independence and the western leaning nature of most of western Ukraine it could be claimed that NATO and the West helped reverse the centuries old rule of former Soviet Ukraine, its Army and people from being ruled from Russia.

It might be similar to the resistance of Finland during WWII and hence Stalin being convinced it should not be incorporated into the Soviet Union being far too difficult to be run from Moscow.

President Zelensky of course once again ruled out, during his visit, categorically the cessation of any land to Russia. However, the military reality beyond the propaganda suggests why Zelensky ordered, on the advice of his commanders, the change of Army tactic from Offence to Defence and the building of its defensive positions.

By default the Ukrainian strategy requires all territory held by Russia at this point to remain under Russian control. I doubt that this position is reversible and any unlikely future offensive being any more effective than the last one.

For the Biden administration to even succeed in persuading Republicans in Congress to agree to another huge financial package to Ukraine is one thing but this cannot be maintained indefinitely.

The Biden administration and its NATO allies have declared that their goal is to help Ukraine achieve a better position at the negotiating table. The truth is that Ukraine has already gone beyond what would have been its best negotiating position; though it could get even worse!

President Biden in a remark about NATO membership for Ukraine said that “NATO will be part of Ukraine’s future.” Arguably NATO will be part of all our futures. Yet that does not mean that we will all become members of NATO!

As I have always said, this conflict is about the neutrality of Ukraine as much as anything else. Ukraine will not be joining NATO.

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